Daily Commodity Update: US Dollar Index

By Jonah S. Ford

The intermediate term chart for the US Dollar Index futures has established the beginning stages of what could be a major breakout from a large Falling Wedge chart pattern. The US Dollar Index is traded as a commodity but is heavily weighted towards the Euro currency, and of course the value of the Dollar Index carries a lot of weight in the influencing of the precious metals and the commodities sector as a whole.

The Falling Wedge has been forming since the Dollar found something resembling a technical bottoming formation early in November and then began trading a wide price range amidst heavy volatility. This chart pattern is nearly textbook, with a very even distribution of swing highs and lows over a long time frame, with very well defined support and resistance levels and a strong Initial Trend reading.

The breakout registered a full 10-bar reading on the Autochartist platform, and is currently setting back to retest the upper band of the Falling Wedge. If the retest proves successful, the projected target from the breakout calls for a minimum value on the Dollar Index of 81.12, with an upper end of the forecast at 82.41, which would imply a substantial decline in the Euro and likely the precious metals as well.

For further information on this and other Autochartist products, visit our website at http://www.autochartist.com

DISCLAIMER: The Autochartist service includes chart pattern identification in respect of foreign currencies, commodities, equities and stocks. There are potential risks relating to investing and trading. You must be aware of such risks and familiarize yourself in regard to such risks and to seek independent advice relating thereto. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose .The Autochartist service and its content should not be construed as a solicitation to invest and/or trade. You should seek independent advice in this regard. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the service and its related media content will be achieved. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice. Autochartist, MDIO Software, their members, shareholders, employees, agents, representatives and resellers do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and they shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance of the Autochartist service and its content. This e-mail may contain information that is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not distribute, copy, circulate or in any other way use or rely on the information contained within the entirety of this email. Please delete the e-mail and any attachments and notify us immediately.

Daily FTSE Technical Update

by, James A. Hyerczyk

After a struggle, the FTSE finally broke through last month’s top at 5902.10, reaching a high at 5907.10. The breakout through the former high was not greeted by a strong buying surge and the market ended up settling lower for the day. 

The inability to attract fresh buyers as the market crossed the old top indicates that investors may feel the market is overvalued at current levels. Although not likely to abandon their bias to the upside, some traders feel the market is ripe for a pull-back. This move against the main trend is likely to draw investor attention if it takes place. Buying interest is expected to be strong following a reasonable short-term pull-back as investors may attempt to “sling-shot” this market to new highs.

Daily Indices Update: F40 (France 40)

by, James A. Hyerczyk

The 240-minute F40 (France 40) Index CFD has set up a very clean looking Ascending Triangle Continuation chart pattern that seems poised to breakout to the upside. The convergence of the steep uptrending support line with the virtually flat horizontal resistance line has compressed this market to the point where a volatile move seems evitable. Although indications are for the trend to continue higher to form a Completed Pattern, traders should still monitor the downside closely in the event the upside breakout fails and the market begins to challenge support.

The formation of this almost textbook Ascending Triangle chart pattern is helping to contribute to the average Uniformity and 6-bar Clarity ratings. The uniformity appears to be low because of the insufficient amount of touches of support inside this 109-bar formation. The relationship between the support and resistance lines, however, clearly defines the uptrend. All it is going to take is a little upside momentum to trigger a breakout.

Ежедневное обновление Forex: GBP/USD

Автор: Дима Черноволов (Dima Chernovolov)

GBP/USD движется вниз в направлении Целевой Зоны для прорыва фигуры Восходящий Канал идентифицированной Autochartist. Высокое значение индикаторов Прорыв (10 делений), Начальный Тренд (10 делений) и Ясность (8 делений) способствовали сильным продажам пары после прорыва. После того как цена почти достигла верхней границы Целевой Зоны (1.5452), пара развернулась вверх от 38,2% Коррекции Фибоначчи предыдущего восходящего импульса (1.5500), и потом повернулась вниз сильным нисходящим импульсом продолжая нисходящее движение. Уровень поддержки 1.5500 должен быть прорван для продолжения нисходящего тренда. Необходимо отметить, что вершина этой фигуры сформировалась на пересечении с линией сопротивления более долгосрочного Треугольника видного на дневных графиках. Это увеличивает вероятность того, что настоящий нисходящий импульс (который вполне вероятно является началом следующей ноги более долгосрочного треугольника) продолжится в ближайшее время.

Daily Forex Update: GBP/USD

By: Dima Chernovolov

GBP/USD is on its way to reaching the Forecast area for the break of the Up Channel chart pattern identified by Autochartist. High Breakout (measured at 10 bars), Initial Trend (10 bars) and Clarity (8 bars) readings all contributed to the strong follow-through selling of the pair. After nearly reaching the top of the Forecast region (1.5452), the price corrected up from the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the preceding upward impulse (1.5500) and then turned back with a strong thrust to continue the downward movement. The 1.5500 support level must be broken for the downtrend to continue. It should be noted that the top of this pattern formed at the intersection with down-sloping resistance line of the longer-term triangle visible on the daily charts. This increases the chances that the current down impulse (most probably being the start of the next down leg of the longer-term triangle) will continue in the near future.

Daily Commodity Update: Gold

By Jonah S. Ford

A possible key reversal in the US Dollar during the Wednesday trading session may compel the Gold market into a definitive correction as well, as the nearby Gold futures flirt with a major trend line support zone of a Triangle chart pattern, seen below on the 240-minute chart. Gold has been in a very strong uptrend, having posted record highs earlier in the month, and the latest slide from above $1,430 an ounce has been gradual and steady, with the short term weakness staying within the boundaries of the strong longer term technical outlook.

 

This may change with the onset of the latest Dollar strength, which gives some possible weight to the Breakout signal in the gold market, indentified by Autochartist after Wednesday’s sell-off. This breakout comes with a minor breach of the triangle’s lower boundaries, which has not yet provided significant momentum but should be watched closely for signs of acceleration.

If the breakout continues to materialize, the downside projected price target for Gold points to a move somewhere between $1,361 and $1,335 per ounce to complete the pattern.

For further information on this and other Autochartist products, visit our website at http://www.autochartist.com

DISCLAIMER: The Autochartist service includes chart pattern identification in respect of foreign currencies, commodities, equities and stocks. There are potential risks relating to investing and trading. You must be aware of such risks and familiarize yourself in regard to such risks and to seek independent advice relating thereto. You should not trade with money that you cannot afford to lose .The Autochartist service and its content should not be construed as a solicitation to invest and/or trade. You should seek independent advice in this regard. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. No representation is being made that any results discussed within the service and its related media content will be achieved. All opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information is provided as general market commentary and not as investment advice. Autochartist, MDIO Software, their members, shareholders, employees, agents, representatives and resellers do not warrant the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the information supplied, and they shall not be liable for any loss or damages, consequential or otherwise, which may arise from the use or reliance of the Autochartist service and its content. This e-mail may contain information that is confidential. If you are not the intended recipient, you must not distribute, copy, circulate or in any other way use or rely on the information contained within the entirety of this email. Please delete the e-mail and any attachments and notify us immediately.

Ежедневное обновление Forex: GBP/CHF

Автор: Дима Черноволов (Dima Chernovolov)

GBP/CHF только что прорвал нижнюю линию поддержки дневной фигуры Восходящий Клин. Autochartist оценивает Ясность этой фигуры на высоком уровне в 9 делений. Этот Восходящий Клин продолжает сильный восходящий тренд видный на дневных, недельный и месячных графиках. Ожидается что, прорыв нижней линии этой фигуры должен привести к падению до Целевой Зоны расположенной между ценовыми уровнями 1.5018 и 1.4851. Хотя сильный уровень сопротивления 1.5100 лежащий на пути к Целевой Зоне уже был преодолен (как видно на графике ниже), следующий барьер для нисходящего тренда находится на “круглом уровне ” 1.5000, который должен быть пробит окончательно для продолжения нисходящего тренда.

Daily Forex Update: GBP/CHF

By: Dima Chernovolov

GBP/CHF has just broken through the lower support line of the daily Falling Wedge chart pattern. Autochartist rates the Clarity of this pattern at the high 9 bar level. This Falling Wedge continues the strong longer-term down trend visible on the daily, weekly and the monthly charts. The Breakout of the lower support line is expected to bring the pair down to the Forecast area enclosed between the price levels 1.5018 and 1.4851. While the major support level 1.5100 laying on the way to this Forecast area has just been penetrated (as you can see on the lower chart below), the next formidable barrier for the down-trend stands at the round price level 1.5000 that should be broken conclusively for the downtrend to continue.

Daily Indices Update: AUS200

by, James A. Hyerczyk

The AUS200 30-minute chart has formed an almost symmetrical 95-bar Head and Shoulders chart pattern, indicating the possibility of a break down to a target area at 4741.00 to 4728.00. The inability to flush through the support line with clarity and conviction on Wednesday indicates that traders may be reluctant to sell weakness, but the slight close under support means early session momentum could trigger a sharp downside break.

It will be interesting how traders handle the test of the support line. Some are looking for an acceleration down through it, others are forecasting a false breakout. It really depends on who shows up on Thursday, the sellers or the buyers.

Technically, the 10-bar Initial Trend rating started the ball rolling on this bearish reversal pattern. Adding to the bearishness of this formation are the above average Uniformity and Clarity ratings which indicate a clean pattern with clear downside direction. The symmetry of the shoulder formations should catch the eye of traders and help draw attention to the short-side of the trade.